The race to the trillion mark

Mastercard has surprised the markets with its figures for the second quarter of 2025: the payment service provider increased its turnover by 16.8% year-on-year, outperforming Visa's growth rate. With a profit margin of almost 66% and an increased annual forecast, Mastercard is demonstrating momentum that is further narrowing the gap to its rival, although Visa is still the larger company.

Strong quarterly figures cause a stir

A new research paper from BestBrokers analyzes the 25 most valuable listed companies in the world and dares to predict which companies will reach the one trillion US dollar mark next and which of today's Unicorns are on their way to four trillion.

The path to a trillion-dollar valuation increasingly depends on growth trajectory and strategic positioning - not just size

Paul Hoffman from BestBrokers

Based on market capitalizations as of August 4, 2025, collected via CompaniesMarketCap.com. Using the average growth rates since 2022, the analysts calculated how long individual companies are likely to need to cross the trillion threshold or the four-trillion milestone.

Visa versus Mastercard

Although Mastercard is currently growing faster, Visa remains just ahead in the capitalization race. According to the study, the market leader in global payment transactions is expected to cross the trillion mark in October 2028, around four months ahead of Mastercard. The reason for this is Visa's higher starting point with a market capitalization of USD 658.7 billion compared to Mastercard's USD 506 billion.

Both companies are investing heavily in partnerships and new technologies. Mastercard has formed 2025 alliances with Infosys, Gemini, Ripple and Circle to expand cross-border payments, crypto integration and stablecoin settlements. These initiatives underline the ambition to gain ground in competition with Visa.

The fastest candidates

However, BestBrokers' analysis also shows that the most exciting head-to-head race is currently taking place outside the card industry.

• JPMorgan Chase, valued at 795.7 billion US dollars and with three-year growth of 33.4 percent, is likely to exceed the trillion-dollar mark as early as May 2026.
• Oracle is expected to follow just a few months later. With a market value of 686.5 billion US dollars and a three-year growth rate of 52.9 percent, the software company is considered one of the most dynamic candidates.
• Walmart remains in the running despite short-term share price declines: With almost 30 percent growth since 2022, the group will reach the mark in around eleven months.

Other heavyweights such as Eli Lilly, on the other hand, are struggling with setbacks that diminish their chances of reaching a trillion-dollar valuation in the near future.

Surprise candidates with turbo speed

Some tech companies are also delivering remarkable growth rates: Palantir and Netflix were able to increase their market capitalization by more than 80 percent within a year. Palantir in particular could reach the trillion euro milestone much faster than long-term trends would suggest, possibly as early as the beginning of 2027. Short-term accelerators and sector-related impulses could shift the forecasts at any time.

For start-ups and founders in the finance and tech scene, the analysis makes one thing clear above all: scaling speed and innovative strength are decisive drivers that open up new opportunities even for established giants. These can change competitive conditions within just a few years.