Economic signals in autumn 2025: production picks up, order situation stabilizes, services weaken slightly

The German economy is sending out mixed but slightly positive signals for fall 2025. The manufacturing sector in particular showed noticeable momentum in October. According to the latest data from the Federal Statistical Office, real, seasonally and calendar-adjusted production rose by a significant 1.8% compared to September. This continued the upward trend already evident in the revised September figure (+1.1%).

Industry: mechanical engineering and electronics grow - automotive sector slows down

Production growth was driven in particular by the construction industry, which recorded a strong increase of 3.3% in October. Mechanical engineering (+2.8%) and manufacturers of data processing equipment, electronic and optical products (+3.9%) also provided a tailwind.

The automotive industry, on the other hand, was a clear counterbalance, with output falling by 1.3%. This is an indication of ongoing structural and demand-side challenges within the sector.

Industrial production as a whole (excluding energy and construction) increased by 1.5%. All three main industrial groups contributed to this:

• Capital goods: +2.1 %
• Consumer goods: +2.1
• Intermediate goods: +0.6 %

Energy-intensive industries stabilize

The energy-intensive branches of industry, traditionally an early indicator of economic fluctuations, also recorded a slight increase of 0.6 %. A three-month comparison shows an identical increase. In a year-on-year comparison, they were slightly below the previous year (-0.1%), which indicates a largely stable production situation despite continued high energy costs.

Incoming orders rise, but only modestly without major orders

In October, incoming orders in the manufacturing sector also increased in line with the production trend:

• +1.5% overall compared to the previous month
• +0.5 % excluding major orders

Thus, after two strong months (+2.0% in September, revised), a slight stabilization appears to be emerging, even if demand remains slightly lower in a three-month comparison (-0.5%).

For founders and industrial start-ups, the upturn in orders for capital and intermediate goods in particular is a positive sign. This is an indication that companies are once again investing more in production capacities and modernization.

Services: slight dip in September

The services sector was weaker in September 2025. Turnover fell by 0.2% in real terms, while it increased slightly in nominal terms (+0.2%). Particularly affected were:

• Transport and storage: -0.8%
• Other economic services: -0.5 %
• Professional, scientific and technical services: -0.4 %

On the other hand, the following developed positively:

• Real estate and housing: +0.9%
• Information and communication: +0.6

In a year-on-year comparison, however, the sector remains in growth: +1.6 % in real terms, +3.2 % in nominal terms.

Energy transition sets new records

A strong signal for green business models comes from energy production: in the third quarter of 2025, the share of renewable energies in total electricity generation reached a record 64.1%.

Particularly noteworthy:

• Wind power: +10.5% compared to the same quarter of the previous year, the most important energy source with a 26.8% share
• Photovoltaics: +3.2 %, second most important energy source with 24.1 %

This confirms the trends of a massive expansion of solar and wind capacities. This is creating increasingly attractive market conditions for start-ups in energy, storage and grid technology.

The latest economic data shows: Industry is picking up again, the order situation is improving slightly and the energy transition is creating dynamic growth markets. At the same time, the service sector remains volatile, indicating that business models with high resilience and digitalization potential are still in demand.