Retail sales expected to fall by 3.1% in real terms in 2023

Focus on food retail and digital sales: Statistical data shows sales trends in the German retail sector for 2023

Wiesbaden - According to estimates by the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis), the retail sector in Germany recorded a real decline in sales of 3.1% in 2023 compared to the previous year 2022. Although a nominal increase of 2.4% was recorded, the price-adjusted, real development shows a significant decline.

Annual retail sales in 2023 are expected to fall by 3.8% compared to the previous peak in 2021. During the pandemic, there was a significant increase of 4.8% in 2020, followed by moderate growth of 0.6% in 2021. However, sales fell in 2022 and 2023 due to the sharp price increases.

Special effects in November

In November 2023, part of the Christmas business shifted to the previous month due to special promotions such as "Black Friday" or "Cyber Monday". Nevertheless, retail companies recorded a real decline in sales of 2.5% compared to October 2023. Compared to the previous year, real sales fell by 2.4% in November 2023, while nominal sales rose by 0.1%.

Food particularly affected

Food retail, which had been at a low level since December 2022, was particularly affected by the impact of higher prices. In November 2023, this sector recorded a real decline in sales of 0.5% compared to the previous month and 0.7% compared to the previous year.

The current real declines in food retail shed light on the economic challenge farmers are facing. In this context, the current farmers' protests can certainly be interpreted as a justified reaction to the current situation. Against this backdrop, the subsidy cuts in the agricultural sector could put further pressure on the financial situation of farmers and exacerbate their economic situation.

Internet and mail order retail - 2.8% on the previous month

Retail sales of non-food products as well as internet and mail order sales also declined in real terms. By contrast, the retail trade in textiles, clothing, shoes and leather goods recorded significant growth of 2.0% in November 2023 compared to the previous month and 2.6% compared to the previous year. In online and mail order retail, real sales in November fell by 2.8% compared to the previous month and were therefore 3.5% below the level of November 2022.

Overall, there is a downward trend in the retail sector for 2023, which was primarily influenced by price increases. Price-adjusted sales were still above the pre-coronavirus pandemic level in 2019, but significantly lower than in the years immediately following the outbreak of the pandemic.