KfW-ifo SME Barometer - Sentiment brightens up

Marc Nemitz Marc Nemitz | 14.04.2023

The mood among small and medium-sized enterprises in Germany improved in March. Both assessments of the current business situation and expectations for the future are at their highest level since the outbreak of war in Ukraine.

Good news for German SMEs: the latest KfW-ifo SME barometer shows that the mood among small and medium-sized enterprises continued to flourish in March. The business climate index rose by 4.9 points compared with the previous month to now -3.2 balance points.

Sentiment in all the main economic sectors of the German SME sector rose again. The service sector in particular recorded a strong increase of 7.6 points to now a slightly positive 1.7 balance points. The retail sector leads the sentiment table with an increase of 3.5 points to 3.2 balance points. The improvement in both climate components is particularly encouraging: Business expectations rose by 6.7 points to now -10.0 balance points, the best value since the outbreak of the war.

Construction sector and large companies remain under pressure

Construction companies bring up the rear by far among SMEs. The focus on residential construction in particular is currently suffering from the rapid rise in interest rates and the continuing high cost of materials.

The business climate of large companies in Germany shows a positive trend, but the current business situation remains largely negative. The business climate rose by a total of 4.2 points to -8.2 balance points.

The greatest economic concerns have dissipated and confidence is cautiously returning in SMEs

Dr. Fritzi Köhler-Geib, Chief Economist KfW

Overall, however, the current KfW-ifo SME barometer gives hope for a positive development of the German SME sector, which continues to hold its own despite the difficult circumstances. Despite a stiff economic headwind, confidence is cautiously blossoming among SMEs in Germany. Although monetary policy and real wage losses are still having a braking effect, an economic recovery is expected in the course of 2023. SMEs can look forward to a positive business situation and business expectations.

The current edition and the basic data set can be found here on the KfW homepage

The KfW-ifo SME Barometer

The KfW-ifo SME Barometer is an indicator based on the monthly evaluation of the ifo business surveys and specifically refers to the economic situation of small and medium-sized enterprises in Germany. Around 9,000 companies are surveyed, of which around 7,500 are classified as SMEs. The barometer measures the business climate, i.e. the assessment of the current business situation and business expectations for the coming six months. In addition, employment expectations, domestic sales price expectations and export expectations are recorded for the next three months in each case. All time series are seasonally and mean-adjusted. The KfW-ifo SME barometer thus provides information on the current and future economic situation in the SME sector.


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